An algorithm for diagnosing IgE-mediated food allergy in study participants who do not undergo food challenge.

BACKGROUND: Food allergy diagnosis in clinical studies can be challenging. Oral food challenges (OFC) are time-consuming, carry some risk and may, therefore, not be acceptable to all study participants. OBJECTIVE: To design and evaluate an algorithm for detecting IgE-mediated food allergy in clinical study participants who do not undergo OFC. METHODS: An algorithm for trial participants in the Barrier Enhancement for Eczema Prevention (BEEP) study who were unwilling or unable to attend OFC was developed. BEEP is a pragmatic, multi-centre, randomized-controlled trial of daily emollient for the first year of life for primary prevention of eczema and food allergy in high-risk infants (ISRCTN21528841). We built on the European iFAAM consensus guidance to develop a novel food allergy diagnosis algorithm using available information on previous allergenic food ingestion, food reaction(s) and sensitization status. This was implemented by a panel of food allergy experts blind to treatment allocation and OFC outcome. We then evaluated the algorithm's performance in both BEEP and Enquiring About Tolerance (EAT) study participants who did undergo OFC. RESULTS: In 31/69 (45%) BEEP and 44/55 (80%) EAT study control group participants who had an OFC the panel felt confident enough to categorize children as "probable food allergy" or "probable no food allergy". Algorithm-derived panel decisions showed high sensitivity 94% (95%CI 68, 100) BEEP; 90% (95%CI 72, 97) EAT and moderate specificity 67% (95%CI 39, 87) BEEP; 67% (95%CI 39, 87) EAT. Sensitivity and specificity were similar when all BEEP and EAT participants with OFC outcome were included. CONCLUSION: We describe a new algorithm with high sensitivity for IgE-mediated food allergy in clinical study participants who do not undergo OFC. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: This may be a useful tool for excluding food allergy in future clinical studies where OFC is not conducted

Measuring health inequality among children in developing countries: does the choice of the indicator of economic status matter?

Background Currently, poor-rich inequalities in health in developing countries receive a lot of attention from both researchers and policy makers. Since measuring economic status in developing countries is often problematic, different indicators of wealth are used in different studies. Until now, there is a lack of evidence on the extent to which the use of different measures of economic status affects the observed magnitude of health inequalities. Methods This paper provides this empirical evidence for 10 developing countries, using the Demographic and Health Surveys data-set. We compared the World Bank asset index to three alternative wealth indices, all based on household assets. Under-5 mortality and measles immunisation coverage were the health outcomes studied. Poor-rich inequalities in under-5 mortality and measles immunisation coverage were measured using the Relative Index of Inequality. Results Comparing the World Bank index to the alternative indices, we found that (1) the relative position of households in the national wealth hierarchy varied to an important extent with the asset index used, (2) observed poor-rich inequalities in under-5 mortality and immunisation coverage often changed, in some cases to an important extent, and that (3) the size and direction of this change varied per country, index, and health indicator. Conclusion Researchers and policy makers should be aware that the choice of the measure of economic status influences the observed magnitude of health inequalities, and that differences in health inequalities between countries or time periods, may be an artefact of different wealth measures used

Irregular behaviour of class numbers and Euler-Kronecker constants of cyclotomic fields: the log log log devil at play

Kummer (1851) and, many years later, Ihara (2005) both posed conjectures on invariants related to the cyclotomic field $\mathbb Q(\zeta_q)$ with $q$ a prime. Kummer's conjecture concerns the asymptotic behaviour of the first factor of the class number of $\mathbb Q(\zeta_q)$ and Ihara's the positivity of the Euler-Kronecker constant of $\mathbb Q(\zeta_q)$ (the ratio of the constant and the residue of the Laurent series of the Dedekind zeta function $\zeta_{\mathbb Q(\zeta_q)}(s)$ at $s=1$). If certain standard conjectures in analytic number theory hold true, then one can show that both conjectures are true for a set of primes of natural density 1, but false in general. Responsible for this are irregularities in the distribution of the primes. With this survey we hope to convince the reader that the apparently dissimilar mathematical objects studied by Kummer and Ihara actually display a very similar behaviour.Comment: 20 pages, 1 figure, survey, to appear in `Irregularities in the Distribution of Prime Numbers - Research Inspired by Maier's Matrix Method', Eds. J. Pintz and M. Th. Rassia

Deformation and stress of a composite-metal assembly

Compliant structures, e.g. automobile body panel and airplane wing box are widely used. A compliant structure consists of one or more flexible parts, and these parts share the mating features among them. Because of process-induced deformation and part-to-part variations, external forces are applied during the assembly process and the parts are deformed. As a result, the final assembly is pre-stressed and its geometrical shape may deviate from the designed shape. Therefore, the assembly variation and residual stress need to be analysed in order to evaluate the structure performance. In this study, a new approach based on response surface methodology is developed. A number of organised virtual experiments are conducted with the aid of finite element analysis and regression models are fitted to the resulting data. These regression models relate part variations to assembly variation and residual stress. Monte Carlo simulation can be conveniently done using these simple regression models. The effectiveness of this method was illustrated using a composite–metal assembly. It is shown that the method presented in this paper provides a practical and reliable solution to the analysis of compliant structures

Daily emollient during infancy for prevention of eczema: the BEEP randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Skin barrier dysfunction precedes eczema development. We tested whether daily use of emollient in the first year could prevent eczema in high-risk children. METHODS: We did a multicentre, pragmatic, parallel-group, randomised controlled trial in 12 hospitals and four primary care sites across the UK. Families were approached via antenatal or postnatal services for recruitment of term infants (at least 37 weeks' gestation) at high risk of developing eczema (ie, at least one first-degree relative with parent-reported eczema, allergic rhinitis, or asthma, diagnosed by a doctor). Term newborns with a family history of atopic disease were randomly assigned (1:1) to application of emollient daily (either Diprobase cream or DoubleBase gel) for the first year plus standard skin-care advice (emollient group) or standard skin-care advice only (control group). The randomisation schedule was created using computer-generated code (stratified by recruiting centre and number of first-degree relatives with atopic disease) and participants were assigned to groups using an internet-based randomisation system. The primary outcome was eczema at age 2 years (defined by UK working party criteria) with analysis as randomised regardless of adherence to allocation for participants with outcome data collected, and adjusting for stratification variables. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN21528841. Data collection for long-term follow-up is ongoing, but the trial is closed to recruitment. FINDINGS: 1394 newborns were randomly assigned to study groups between Nov 19, 2014, and Nov 18, 2016; 693 were assigned to the emollient group and 701 to the control group. Adherence in the emollient group was 88% (466 of 532) at 3 months, 82% (427 of 519) at 6 months, and 74% (375 of 506) at 12 months in those with complete questionnaire data. At age 2 years, eczema was present in 139 (23%) of 598 infants with outcome data collected in the emollient group and 150 (25%) of 612 infants in the control group (adjusted relative risk 0·95 [95% CI 0·78 to 1·16], p=0·61; adjusted risk difference -1·2% [-5·9 to 3·6]). Other eczema definitions supported the results of the primary analysis. Mean number of skin infections per child in year 1 was 0·23 (SD 0·68) in the emollient group versus 0·15 (0·46) in the control group; adjusted incidence rate ratio 1·55 (95% CI 1·15 to 2·09). INTERPRETATION: We found no evidence that daily emollient during the first year of life prevents eczema in high-risk children and some evidence to suggest an increased risk of skin infections. Our study shows that families with eczema, asthma, or allergic rhinitis should not use daily emollients to try and prevent eczema in their newborn. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment

Daily emollient during infancy for prevention of eczema: the BEEP randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Skin barrier dysfunction precedes eczema development. We tested whether daily use of emollient in the first year could prevent eczema in high-risk children. METHODS: We did a multicentre, pragmatic, parallel-group, randomised controlled trial in 12 hospitals and four primary care sites across the UK. Families were approached via antenatal or postnatal services for recruitment of term infants (at least 37 weeks' gestation) at high risk of developing eczema (ie, at least one first-degree relative with parent-reported eczema, allergic rhinitis, or asthma, diagnosed by a doctor). Term newborns with a family history of atopic disease were randomly assigned (1:1) to application of emollient daily (either Diprobase cream or DoubleBase gel) for the first year plus standard skin-care advice (emollient group) or standard skin-care advice only (control group). The randomisation schedule was created using computer-generated code (stratified by recruiting centre and number of first-degree relatives with atopic disease) and participants were assigned to groups using an internet-based randomisation system. The primary outcome was eczema at age 2 years (defined by UK working party criteria) with analysis as randomised regardless of adherence to allocation for participants with outcome data collected, and adjusting for stratification variables. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN21528841. Data collection for long-term follow-up is ongoing, but the trial is closed to recruitment. FINDINGS: 1394 newborns were randomly assigned to study groups between Nov 19, 2014, and Nov 18, 2016; 693 were assigned to the emollient group and 701 to the control group. Adherence in the emollient group was 88% (466 of 532) at 3 months, 82% (427 of 519) at 6 months, and 74% (375 of 506) at 12 months in those with complete questionnaire data. At age 2 years, eczema was present in 139 (23%) of 598 infants with outcome data collected in the emollient group and 150 (25%) of 612 infants in the control group (adjusted relative risk 0·95 [95% CI 0·78 to 1·16], p=0·61; adjusted risk difference -1·2% [-5·9 to 3·6]). Other eczema definitions supported the results of the primary analysis. Mean number of skin infections per child in year 1 was 0·23 (SD 0·68) in the emollient group versus 0·15 (0·46) in the control group; adjusted incidence rate ratio 1·55 (95% CI 1·15 to 2·09). INTERPRETATION: We found no evidence that daily emollient during the first year of life prevents eczema in high-risk children and some evidence to suggest an increased risk of skin infections. Our study shows that families with eczema, asthma, or allergic rhinitis should not use daily emollients to try and prevent eczema in their newborn. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment

The metabolic effects of intermittent versus continuous feeding in critically ill patients.

Intermittent (or bolus) feeding regimens in critically ill patients have been of increasing interest to clinicians and scientists. Changes in amino acid, fat and carbohydrate metabolites over time might yet deliver other benefits (e.g. modulation of the circadian rhythm and sleep, and impacts on ghrelin secretion, insulin resistance and autophagy). We set out to characterise these changes in metabolite concentration. The Intermittent versus Continuous Feeding in Critically Ill paitents study (NCT02358512) was an eight-centre single-blinded randomised controlled trial. Patients were randomised to received a continuous (control arm) or intermittent (6x/day, intervention arm) enteral feeding regimen. Blood samples were taken on trial days 1, 7 and 10 immediately before and 30 min after intermittent feeds, and at equivalent timepoints in the control arm. A pre-planned targeted metabolomic analysis was performend using Nuclear Resonance Spectroscopy. Five hundred and ninety four samples were analysed from 75 patients. A total of 24 amino acid-, 19 lipid based-, and 44 small molecule metabolite features. Across the main two axes of variation (40-60% and 6-8% of variance), no broad patterns distinguished between intermittent or continuous feeding arms, across intra-day sampling times or over the 10 days from initial ICU admission. Logfold decreases in abundance were seen in metabolites related to amino acids (Glutamine - 0.682; Alanine - 0.594), ketone body metabolism (Acetone - 0.64; 3-Hydroxybutyric Acid - 0.632; Acetonacetic Acid - 0.586), fatty acid (carnitine - 0.509) and carbohydrate metabolism ( Maltose - 0.510; Citric Acid - 0.485). 2-3 Butanediol, a by-product of sugar-fermenting microbial metabolism also decreased (- 0.489). No correlation was seen with change in quadriceps muscle mass for any of the 20 metabolites varying with time (all p > 0.05). Increasing severity of organ failure was related to increasing ketone body metabolism (3 Hydroxybutyric Acid-1 and - 3; p = 0.056 and p = 0.014), carnitine deficiency (p = 0.002) and alanine abundancy (p - 0.005). A 6-times a day intermittent feeding regimen did not alter metabolite patterns across time compared to continuous feeding in critically ill patients, either within a 24 h period or across 10 days of intervention. Future research on intermittent feeding regimens should focus on clinical process benefits, or extended gut rest and fasting

The metabolic effects of intermittent versus continuous feeding in critically ill patients

Intermittent (or bolus) feeding regimens in critically ill patients have been of increasing interest to clinicians and scientists. Changes in amino acid, fat and carbohydrate metabolites over time might yet deliver other benefits (e.g. modulation of the circadian rhythm and sleep, and impacts on ghrelin secretion, insulin resistance and autophagy). We set out to characterise these changes in metabolite concentration. The Intermittent versus Continuous Feeding in Critically Ill paitents study (NCT02358512) was an eight-centre single-blinded randomised controlled trial. Patients were randomised to received a continuous (control arm) or intermittent (6x/day, intervention arm) enteral feeding regimen. Blood samples were taken on trial days 1, 7 and 10 immediately before and 30 min after intermittent feeds, and at equivalent timepoints in the control arm. A pre-planned targeted metabolomic analysis was performend using Nuclear Resonance Spectroscopy. Five hundred and ninety four samples were analysed from 75 patients. A total of 24 amino acid-, 19 lipid based-, and 44 small molecule metabolite features. Across the main two axes of variation (40–60% and 6–8% of variance), no broad patterns distinguished between intermittent or continuous feeding arms, across intra-day sampling times or over the 10 days from initial ICU admission. Logfold decreases in abundance were seen in metabolites related to amino acids (Glutamine − 0.682; Alanine − 0.594), ketone body metabolism (Acetone − 0.64; 3-Hydroxybutyric Acid − 0.632; Acetonacetic Acid − 0.586), fatty acid (carnitine − 0.509) and carbohydrate metabolism (Maltose − 0.510; Citric Acid − 0.485). 2–3 Butanediol, a by-product of sugar-fermenting microbial metabolism also decreased (− 0.489). No correlation was seen with change in quadriceps muscle mass for any of the 20 metabolites varying with time (all p > 0.05). Increasing severity of organ failure was related to increasing ketone body metabolism (3 Hydroxybutyric Acid-1 and − 3; p = 0.056 and p = 0.014), carnitine deficiency (p = 0.002) and alanine abundancy (p − 0.005). A 6-times a day intermittent feeding regimen did not alter metabolite patterns across time compared to continuous feeding in critically ill patients, either within a 24 h period or across 10 days of intervention. Future research on intermittent feeding regimens should focus on clinical process benefits, or extended gut rest and fasting

Virtual patients design and its effect on clinical reasoning and student experience : a protocol for a randomised factorial multi-centre study

Background Virtual Patients (VPs) are web-based representations of realistic clinical cases. They are proposed as being an optimal method for teaching clinical reasoning skills. International standards exist which define precisely what constitutes a VP. There are multiple design possibilities for VPs, however there is little formal evidence to support individual design features. The purpose of this trial is to explore the effect of two different potentially important design features on clinical reasoning skills and the student experience. These are the branching case pathways (present or absent) and structured clinical reasoning feedback (present or absent). Methods/Design This is a multi-centre randomised 2x2 factorial design study evaluating two independent variables of VP design, branching (present or absent), and structured clinical reasoning feedback (present or absent).The study will be carried out in medical student volunteers in one year group from three university medical schools in the United Kingdom, Warwick, Keele and Birmingham. There are four core musculoskeletal topics. Each case can be designed in four different ways, equating to 16 VPs required for the research. Students will be randomised to four groups, completing the four VP topics in the same order, but with each group exposed to a different VP design sequentially. All students will be exposed to the four designs. Primary outcomes are performance for each case design in a standardized fifteen item clinical reasoning assessment, integrated into each VP, which is identical for each topic. Additionally a 15-item self-reported evaluation is completed for each VP, based on a widely used EViP tool. Student patterns of use of the VPs will be recorded. In one centre, formative clinical and examination performance will be recorded, along with a self reported pre and post-intervention reasoning score, the DTI. Our power calculations indicate a sample size of 112 is required for both primary outcomes